Modelling the linkages: Weather, flooding and climate change

It is often difficult to know what is being predicted to change on the ground from the complex Global Climate Model Results.  We know we should expect more intense storms but there seems a disjoint between climate modellers and those that know about floods and disaster management.  

In May 2014, Richard Wylde, Jeremy Benn and Anthony Green presented work to MRC in Cambodia and IMHEN in Vietnam on directly linking the Numerical Weather Model WRF  to a flood model and simulated at a fine scale Typhoon Ketsana  that severely affected Vietnam, Lao PDR and Cambodia in 2009.  The changes in flood behaviour for a similar event in the future were also simulated using likely changes on sea temperatures predicted by the IPCC models.  

The work showed  potentially big changes in the flooding regime for an event that was already very damaging.  This type of fine scale simulation of the weather and direct linkage to a flood model showed potential for a much better understanding of the future in typhoon prone regions.  It gives a refreshing alternative approach to the ensemble averaging of broad scale climate models that cannot properly resolve typhoon behaviour.


Simulation of Typhoon Ketsana