Climate change database
Whilst Climate Projections from 10 years ago are still widely used, Mekong Modelling Associates (MMA) have recently developed a climate change database, containing the outputs from more than 40 Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the recent CMIP5 archive. These are the same set of model results that were used to inform the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report (AR5), therefore representing the latest and most detailed assessment of climate change around the world.
MMA have processed this data into a user friendly format (which can be imported directly into ArcGIS), providing estimates of future climate change for any area of the world and for any future time period. All key atmospheric variables are stored within the database. In addition, the baseline datasets from each model are available – typically covering the period 1850 to 2005 – making it much easier to assess the performance of each individual model for the historical period. This data can also be fed into impact models, either directly via the use of the change factor approach, or indirectly via statistical or dynamical downscaling of the original GCM data (for example, the GCM data can be used to run the WRF regional climate model).
An example of the data held in the database is shown for the Asian region, from NOAA’s GFDL-CM3 model for the 2080s time period and RCP4.5. A ratio of future to present rainfall has been taken, so that blue colours indicate areas where rainfall decreases are expected and red colours areas where increases are expected.